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Global temperatures are prone to surge to record levels in the subsequent five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern, in keeping with a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday.
There may be a 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027, might be greater than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for not less than one yr.
Warmest yr ever
And there’s a 98 per cent likelihood that not less than certainly one of the subsequent five years, and the five-year period, might be the warmest on record.
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“A warming El Niño is predicted to develop in the approaching months and it will mix with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said.
“This may have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We should be prepared,” said Petteri Taalas.
Some key facts
Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures within the yr after it develops, on this case, meaning 2024.
There may be a 98 per cent probability of not less than one in the subsequent five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
Arctic warming is disproportionately high. In comparison with the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be greater than 3 times as large as the worldwide expected anomaly when considering the subsequent five northern hemisphere prolonged winters.
Predicted rain patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, in comparison with the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall within the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.
Along with increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are resulting in more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather.
The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the worldwide temperature increase on this century to 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the rise even further to 1.5°C, to avoid or reduce adversarial impacts and related losses and damages.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for global warming are higher than 1.5 °C but lower than 2 °C.
The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress (22 May to 2 June) which is able to discuss tips on how to strengthen weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation.
Priorities for discussion at Congress include the UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative to guard people from increasingly extreme weather and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to tell climate mitigation.
SOURCE: UN News
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